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#1 W. Clark

W. Clark


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Posted 07 March 2017 - 12:13 PM

Here’s a problem for you to consider when you have the time. I’d like your opinion as to the merits of my thinking and a solution if you see one.


Here goes. You have two opposing forces, Japanese and ABDA. Each has cruisers and destroyers. One side (either one) upon viewing the other side decides that it is disadvantaged in a gunnery duel. That side (weather allowing) has a destroyer division lay smoke that covers the remainder of its force. Meanwhile it parallels the smoke laying destroyers with a division or two of destroyers within the first range band of their torpedoes.


What does the other side do? If they penetrate the smoke they are torpedo bait to the waiting enemy destroyers. I say that because with a typical TT mount (4 for IJN/RN or 3 for USN/RNN) the chance to hit without evasion is 1-9 for the IJN/RN, 1-8 for the USN and 1-6 for the RNN. Even with evasion the only navy with less than a 50% chance to hit is the Dutch. That’s long odds any way you figure it and the fact that most destroyers have two mounts makes it worse.


You know me. I look at this stuff and try to figure out an optimum tactic to use and then I look for a counter. In other words, I try and foresee scenarios and what to do immediately upon seeing them. I see how to nullify the one side’s advantage, but now how do I counter the tactic.


I realize that the ref has to take the helicopter view away from both sides when they are blanked in smoke. I guess the answer is to treat them as if it is night and require that they commit to a plan of action based on what they last saw before the smoke blinded them. I cannot see me being willing to endanger my ships at point blank torpedo range by plunging through the smoke. What do you think?

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