Kido Butai in the I/O
April 1942
In April 1942 the IJN in the form of the First Carrier Fleet (aka Kido Butai, I’m not kidding, that’s what they called it.) went on a foray into the Indian Ocean, here to a British lake. They rolled over everything in their path and made it look easy. But there was a moment when Carrier Division 2 and its attendant destroyers became separated from the main body and in the path of Force A, close enough to be in reach after dark. But a Albacore that had spotted them was shot down before it could radio a full report and then fate intervened in form of an hours old and incorrect report from Ceylon that the Japanese carriers were headed towards the Eastern Fleet with Addu Atoll with enough daylight left to mount a strike. Somerville withdrew and the opportunity was lost.
But what if the Albacore had completed its report or if the old info had not been passed on to Somerville. What if Force A had kept going and launched a night air attack on the detached Carrier Division 2 and its attendant destroyer division. A successful night air strike could probably have been followed up by a surface engagement around and about 2100 hours with Force A trying to engage Warspite, the E class cruisers and a destroyer division (the N class would be my choice).
But even if wildly successful, could Force A then escape the fury and vengeance of Nagumo’s main body? I don’t know, but I suspect that Warspite’s 23.5 knot speed limitation made her escape problematic. The rest of Force A could at least match the 30.5 knots of the carriers and certainly had a better chance of avoiding the 10 or so FP carried by the Tone’s that comprised the scouting arm of the Kido Butai.
The Situation (partially known to Somerville and totally unknow to Nagumo)
1724 hours: Force A is 100 nm from RAdm Yamaguchi’s carriers and destroyers and Sommerville had some idea of this as Yamaguchi and Nagumo do not. But Nagumo and the remainder of the Kido Butai are about 120 nm from Force A and neither party knows that. Dusk is shortly after 1800 hours and time to launch a night, radar guided air strike. The max that Force A could sortie is 6 Albacores from Indomitable and 5 from Formidable. The strike would reach Yamaguchi’s carriers between 1830 hours and 1900 hours.
You could play it out in as much detail as you want (GQ3.3 gives you several options). But I’m not a very avid Airedale and I always opt for the campaign resolution as its simpler and quicker. Basically, the radar equipped Albacores find Yamaguchi’s ships as a mass. Albacores then illuminate ships for a torpedo attack. Yamaguchi’s ships get 1 D12 on the left most column of the AA CRT with a 1 = a kill and 2= damaged, all other results are nil.
The Albacore flights would then roll a D12 for each flight (so, 11 die rolls, absent any K or D from AA) on the WWII Campaign Ops CRT for torpedoes using the far right “dark” column. A 1 = 2 hits and 2-4 = 1 hits all other results are nil. Record each hitting die roll as you are not done yet. Determine which ship(s) are the actual target by some random method (I divide them up on a D12, in this case there a 5 ships total. So, each ship has a range or 1 or 2, 3 or 4 and so on. That leaves two results left over. You could weigh the results by adding 1 each to each of the carriers as they are bigger targets or re-roll.) The targeted ship(s) then tries to evade and if successful modifies the initial die roll. Targets that are still hit then resolve on the torpedo hit CRT, but remember these are aerial torpedoes and hull hits are halved.
Somerville now has a choice. If the attack was sufficiently successful (the target is slowed to 20 knots or less) then press ahead with a surface attack. There are two possibilities.
- Commit Warspite, the E class cruisers and a destroyer division. Contact would occur about 2100 hours.
- Commit the E class cruisers and a destroyer division. Contact would occur about 2030 hours.
Then run for your life, because Eli (Nagumo) is a coming. Now, its almost guaranteed that that the Kido Butai will find something, now that they are looking for it. I mean, Nagumo’s Zeros shot down carrier-based planes earlier that day and he didn’t bother to look for their source. I suspect the lost or serious damage or what not to Hiryu and Soryu would change Nagumo’s thinking.
Warspite IMHO is toast. Her 23.5 knot speed limitation does not give her much chance of getting away. Every other ship in Force A can exceed 30 knots and has a slightly better chance. The best you can hope for (again) IMHO is that if you leave Warspite to own devices that the Kido Butai will concentrate on her destruction (She is a battleship after all) leaving the rest to escape detection while the Kido Butai is distracted. You could play it out but a few die rolls will give same result IMHO. I don’t include Force B because it needs to run immediately as 15 knot sis its realistic max speed.
RN Eastern Fleet, Force A: Admiral Somerville
HMS Warspite FF (Queen Elizabeth class)
Carrier Group: Radm Boyd
HMS Indomitable DF (Indomitable class) 3 Sea Hurricane 4 Fulmar II 8 Albacores
HMS Formidable (Illustrious class) 6 Albacores 3 Martlets
Cruiser Sqdn
HMS Emerald & HMS Enterprise (Emerald class)
Aussie Destroyer Division
HMAS Napier, HMAS Nestor & HMS Nizam (N class)
Destroyer Division
HMS Paladin & HMS Panther (P class), HMS Hotspur (H class) & HMS Foxhound (F class)
Detached IJN Force
Carrier Division 2: Radm Yamaguchi
Hiryu DF (Hiryu class) 5 Zero 4 Val 4 Kate
Soryu (Soryu class) 5 Zero 4 Val 4 Kate
Destroyer Division 18
Shiranui (Kagero class) & Kasumi (Asashio class)
IJN Main Body
IJN 1st Carrier Fleet: Vadm Nagumo
Carrier Division 1: Vadm Nagumo
Akagi FF (Akagi class) 5 Zero 4 Val 4 Kate
Carrier Division 3: Radm Hara
Zuikaku DF (Shokaku class) 5 Zero 4 Val 4 Kate
Shokaku (Shokaku class) 5 Zero 4 Val 4 Kate
Battle Sqdn 3 Vadm Mikawa
Hiei SF, Kirishima, Kongo & Haruna (Kongo class)
Cruiser Sqdn 8: Radm Abe
Tone SF & Chikuma (Tone class)
DesFlot 1: Radm Sentaro
Abukuma FL (Nagara class)
Destroyer Division 17
Urakaze, Isokazer, Hamakaze & Tanikaze (Kagero class)
Destroyer Division 27
Ariake & Yugure (Hatsuharu class) & Shiratsuyu (Shiratsuyu class)
Designer’s Notes
Obviously, the loss of Warspite would be grievous as had been the earlier losses of Cornwall. Dorsetshire, Hermes and Vampire. But if Hiryu and Soryu with their air crews were lost in return, not to mention the three destroyers (Whoops, I just mentioned them); would that not be a greater loss to the IJN?
IMHO, if Somerville pulls this off then the whole course of the war in the Pacific is altered in the Allies favor. As just one change, if Midway still takes place, then Hiryu is not there to sink Yorktown and the balance of power as far as carriers goes in the Pacific is much more balanced than it was historically. IMHO the breaking of the Kido Butai trumps any loss suffered by the Eastern Fleet given the effect that they each had on the conduct of the war in the Pacific.
And isn’t that why we love what-ifs?
WMC
